(Prezography photo)
To many, the presidential polls matter. To just as many more, they’re worthless. But, if you’re going to look at them, we think you should at least look at them all.
So, taking the Iowa and national polls of the past month, weighing them for accuracy, here are the current presidential poll power rankings:
• • •
1. Donald Trump 22.46%
2. Ben Carson 16.75%
3. Carly Fiorina 10.23%
4. Ted Cruz 8.23%
5. Marco Rubio 7.73%
6. Jeb Bush 6.75%
7. Mike Huckabee 4.26%
8. Bobby Jindal 3.84%
9. Rand Paul 3.32%
10. John Kasich 2.68%
11. Chris Christie 2.03%
12. Rick Santorum 0.99%
13. Lindsey Graham 0.97%
14. George Pataki 0.02%
Undecided 9.75%
As you can see, there’s been very little change in the polling averages, mainly because most of the polls released of late are seemingly skewed toward one or two particular candidates. With the next Republican presidential primary debate coming up, there’s no doubt been RNC pressure to keep a couple of candidates more “viable” than they really are.
Tomorrow is the deadline for poll results to be counted, and ABC hasn’t released new GOP numbers in more than a month. They just released new numbers for the Democrats this morning, and likely didn’t want to have their numbers lost in the shuffle with CNN’s number dump today.
Based on the averages at this moment, here is how the debate stage would look for the CNBC debate:
Front and center — Donald Trump
To his left — Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Chris Christie
To his right — Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich
As it stands right now, one candidate has broken into the 1-percent threshold for a potential “Happy Hour Debate” It’s unclear how CNBC will deal with this issue, if Rick Santorum’s polling average holds. Only Bobby Jindal would also qualify if it used the same “rounding up” rule it planned to impose on the main debate averages.
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